How El Niño Intensified to Super Duper El Niño? Amid Heat Risk for India, Will Winters Be Affected? Check Forecast till 2027

Weather experts are warning that the developing El Niño is intensifying and could become one of the strongest events recorded since at least 1950. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has cautioned that the phenomenon could amplify the effects of human-induced climate change, increasing the likelihood of unusually warm conditions across large parts of the world.

El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise significantly above normal, influencing global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns.

Meteorologist Ryan Maue shared a global climate map on X, describing the planet as “almost entirely in red”. He said El Niño would remain at “maximum power” through the winter, driving widespread planetary heating, with the United States being an exception in his assessment.

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather also warned that temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region had reached around 3.4 degrees Celsius above normal, which he described as unprecedented compared with previous El Niño events. The Niño 3.4 region is a key area of the Pacific used to monitor the phenomenon.

Weather expert Leon Simons described the developing event as a “super-duper El Niño”.

For October-November-December, the temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal, according to the report.

The WMO has indicated that El Niño could persist through February 2027. Its potential effects include stronger heat extremes, shifts in rainfall patterns and heightened risks to agriculture and water resources.

India could witness a growing risk of extreme heat and dry weather as a powerful El Niño develops, according to a warning highlighted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The climate phenomenon, associated with abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, can intervene with global weather patterns.

A strong El Niño may influence India's monsoon, potentially increasing the likelihood of rainfall deficits in some regions and deteriorating heat conditions. However, its actual affect depends on other atmospheric and oceanic factors, and regional outcomes can vary.

Higher temperatures and below-normal rainfall could affect agriculture, water availability, energy demand and public health. Less rainfall may also place pressure on reservoirs and groundwater resources, while prolonged heat can increase irrigation requirements and the risk of heat-related illnesses.

“For October-November-December, the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C, peaking around December. This is the highest since observations began and is stronger than the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016,” the WMO said.

The expected peak in December could have numerous aftermaths , including higher temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns.

El Niño has surpassed a historic temperature record as unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific persist and elevate concerns about possibly massive weather disruptions in the upcoming months. According to Fox Weather, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) reached +3.04°C on September 20, thus surpassing the previous record of +3.02°C of November 2015.

Ocean Temperatures Break Record

The fresh reading records the highest ONI value reported since daily records began in 1982. ONI measures tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature changes against a 30-year average and has previously been used to assess El Niño intensity.

However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has retired ONI as its main operational measure and now utilises the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which accounts for warming across the tropical oceans.

The present RONI value is about +2.50°C, below the RONI record of +3.48°C set in December 1982.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a changing climate pattern linked with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can change atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall, temperatures and storm patterns far beyond the Pacific.

The present occurrence has been regarded as potentially reaching “Super El Niño” strength. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that previously this month the event could become the strongest recorded, with an almost 100% chance of persisting through February 2027.

Prediction for Future

The unusually warm tropical Pacific could accentuate atmospheric moisture and trigger higher global temperatures in the short term. The impact of a powerful El Niño can vary considerably by region, thus leading to heavier rainfall in some areas while maximising drought risks elsewhere.

The US Climate Prediction Centre's outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 indicates that wetter and stormier conditions are expected across the southern United.

Global risks

The bolstering event is also being closely observed outside the United States. Reuters reported that WMO expects El Niño's effects to continue into 2027, possibly causing warmer global temperatures and soaring vulnerability for agriculture, water supplies and other climate-sensitive sectors.

Impact of El Niño on India

India could grapple with higher temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as the bolstered El Niño continues into early 2027. Its seasonal outlook signals a strong possibility of above-normal temperatures across the Indian region too.

For India, the major concern remains a possible impact on rainfall and the monsoon system. WMO forecasts for July-September 2026 have hinted at a higher chance of below-normal rainfall over parts of the Indian subcontinent, although the effect of El Niño is not the same and can be influenced by other climate drivers. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will also be a crucial decider, as WMO expects a positive IOD to occur, which can change or partly negate the typical impacts of El Niño over India.